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Employment’s a Lagging Indicator …

Non-farm payroll numbers disappoint the Street.

  • Headshot of Steve Claussen Steve Claussen is the Chief Investment Strategist for OptionsHouse. His 26-year career in the derivatives industry took him from the Chicago Board of Trade to Wachovia and eventually OptionsHouse.

by Steve Claussen July 2, 2009 8:22 EDT

The non-farm payroll number came in with a very disappointing loss of 467,000 jobs this morning. The expectation was for a loss of only 365,000. With many traders already gone for the weekend, this negative economic release could have an outsized impact on the market today. The immediate reaction in the pre-market e-mini S&P 500 futures was a drop of an additional 10 points. Buckle up, it could be a bumpy ride into the weekend!

Keep an eye on the CBOE SPX Volatility Index (VIX)! We have two opposing forces at work today. One is the decay that options will encounter over the extended thee-day weekend and the other more immediate fear is what the negative jobs number throws into the market. This early drop will likely cause the VIX to spike initially. If the second move is also higher, then fear is winning over decay.